I'm not sure I agree with the chess analogy. Chess sort of presumes two somewhat equal players and economically speaking Russia is highly outmatched with an economy smaller than that of Texas. However, Russia enjoys one equalizer with the West, the ability to destroy the Biosphere and thus life on Earth. This does give it a measure of extortionary power but not a ton of economic leverage. Of course, Russia has a very simple solution—declare Ukraine punished and leave all but Crimea in shambles. Otherwise they WILL eventually feel a great deal of increasing self-inflicted pain.