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What Really Moves Crime Rates?
Criminals have been with us since the beginning of time. I even suspect other animals have the same problem. One of our cats definitely murders way more birds and bunnies than the other two, even though he is well fed at home. My nephew also has a cat they nicknamed Murder Mittens. As a baseline, approximately 5% of the population is of a criminal mindset and this pretty much remains the same. The crime rate depends on how well we can keep this 5% in check either by de-incentivising or policing.
Your odds of experiencing a bad crime in America personally remain fairly low, around 47 in 100,000 or 0.047%. But crimes tend to be sensationalized in the media so it’s easy to whip people up into a frenzy because a serial killer is on the lose or a smash and grab was caught on video. It blows the real danger way out of proportion and gives cynical political candidates a fear issue to harp on.
Crime Rate: The Prevalence of Crime
The fluctuations in crime rates are always tied to the macroeconomic, Big Picture situation. When desperation goes up, crime goes up. When drug addiction goes up, crime goes up. When gun sales go up, crime goes up. When law enforcement becomes ineffective, crime goes up. When mental health goes down, crime goes up. It’s complicated and a crime wave can ensue when one or more of these factors gets out…
